Big Sur Highway 1 has faced more than 55 landslide closures — and a strong El Nino may bring more

It has been said that only fools and tourists predict the weather, and I don’t believe I belong to either of those two groups. However, there are two elements colliding which could easily take a toll on the Big Sur Coast Highway this winter. On the one hand, the area has just experienced two very large wildland fires, the Timber Fire (which burned about 25,352 acres or nearly 40 square miles) and the Plaskett Fire (which scorched about 30,124 acres or nearly 47 square miles. The latter is the same area as all of the city and county of San Francisco). Fifty-four years ago, in the late summer of 1972, a major forest and brush fire (the Molera Fire) swept quickly through the Big Sur area, burning 4,000 acres (a little more than 6 square miles) of steep coastal mountains above the Big Sur River. Days of sustained rainfall in November were followed by short periods of very intense rainfall and led to extensive mud and debris flows coming off the steep, burned-over slopes. These flows, estim